Did the IDF approve a strike expecting 500 civilian deaths?

The direct answer

Yes — by the IDF’s own targeting procedures, every approved Gaza strike carried an advance casualty estimate of expected civilian deaths, and soldiers interviewed in the documentary NAZA say the highest number they recall being signed off was 500. The film’s anonymous Unit 8200 witness stated plainly, “there was approval for 500” (ynetnews.com¹).

The misleading denials

The IDF’s official rebuttal — that it has “never planned, approved, or carried out a strike in which 500 civilians… were anticipated” — is testable: its own rules require an expected-harm estimate document on every target card, yet none have been published, while it did publish such figures for the 2014 war (hanoverinstitute.com²). A second rebuttal — that officers merely estimated while commanders decided — concedes the essential fact: civilian casualties were counted into approvals (israelnationalnews.com³).

The Hannibal Directive

This is not new doctrine. The IDF’s Hannibal Directive authorizes massive force, including against Israeli civilians, to prevent capture — Haaretz reported it was applied on October 7, 2023 (wsws.org⁴, theguardian.com⁵). Veterans also described the Jabalia strike of October 31, 2023 — 2,000-pound bombs on occupied homes, approved by the chief of staff because hundreds of casualties were expected (commondreams.org⁶).

The conservative conclusion

As one veteran put it, “You can’t authorize the potential killing of 300 civilians for a battalion commander… and still tell the public we did everything we could.” Even Israeli Air Force commanders now approve every strike personally because internal estimates keep falling short of real death tolls (ynetnews.com⁷). Israel’s own military testimony and hidden paperwork confirm the government knowingly approved strikes with hundreds of expected civilian deaths.